Pac-12 media rights deal: Predictions for the duration, valuation and partners as the conference closes in

The Pac- is on the brink of securing the next piece to its multi-year reclamation project A media rights deal could be informed this week but should be sealed before the month concludes Heck the agreement could become constituents before you read the following Hotline predictions Yes we re going there Where s the fun in waiting for facts The following forecast is based on information and insight collected over the curriculum of months not up-to-date information provided by sources Only a handful of people know the details and they aren t talking Our goal is to provide fans with a reasonable range of outcomes in key categories to avoid surprises when the deal becomes inhabitants And please note We aren t plunging into the membership issue here The conference must add at least one all-sports school by July to meet certification requirements We expect that school to be Texas State Although the Pac- could disclose the identity of member No when it reveals the media deal our hunch is that decision will be communicated separately Here we go Term length prediction Five years Context The Pac- s media rights contract cycle begins next summer when the five Mountain West schools and Gonzaga officially join the conference A five-year deal would conclude at the end of the - competition year That s a critical window for the industry The Big Ten s media deal ends in followed by the expiration of the Big s agreement in The men s NCAA Tournament and College Football Playoff deals terminate in the spring of Two years later the SEC s deal expires We suspect members of the rebuilt Pac- are wary of signing anything that locks up their media rights well beyond the early s They want the flexibility to respond to whatever comes next in conference realignment That revealed a deal that runs for seven or eight years but includes an opt-out window after five is also a possibility Valuation prediction million annually Context In our view any deal that pays between million and million per school annually would fall within a reasonable range At million each of the nine members would collect million But there s a caveat two caveats really If the ninth member only receives a half-share of the media rights revenue in a given year a million annual deal would spin off million to each of the full-share members There are numerous examples of partial-share deals across the land from Stanford and Cal in the ACC to Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten and we suspect the Pac- will pursue that option at least for a insufficient years for its ninth member The Pac- is expected to implement a revenue distribution model that encourages venture and rewards success Similar to the plan implemented by the ACC this year it could be structured to account for factors like TV ratings and College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament bids Don t be surprised if schools at the top end of the revenue chain receive closer to million in media rights in a given year One piece of additional context At million annually the deal would more than double the roughly million that Fresno State Colorado State Utah State and San Diego State at the moment receive from the Mountain West Boise State has a separate deal and earns slightly more Infrastructure partners prediction The CW ESPN and Warner Bros Discovery WBD Context Assuming the deal spins off between million and million per school per year the architecture piece is arguably the most of enthralling element and perhaps the largest part central Related Articles Big MBB Houston Texas Tech top post-NBA Draft deadline power rankings Cal athletic director Jim Knowlton to retire What s next for the Bears with a void at the top and competitive challenges mounting CFB recruiting UCLA stays hot UW goes national and a Ryder Lyons update Mailbag How Pac- expansion media and CFP strategy are interconnected Golden age of Big Ten football House settlement offers huge advantage Whatever the Pac- schools collect in media revenue they won t come close to matching counterparts in the ACC Big Big Ten and SEC That makes exposure for the product absolutely vital The rebuilt conference cannot be irrelevant It must have a essential portion of games on linear television either over-the-air or cable networks We view a package of football broadcasts on The CW as highly likely considering the existing partnership for - with additional inventory on ESPN and the Turner networks owned by WBD That revealed don t be surprised if Fox or CBS is involved instead of or in addition to ESPN or WBD The Pac- could have as multiple as four system partners Fans should expect a sizable number of games to air on streaming platforms as well That is increasingly the way of the world in college sports for both football and basketball The other component of high interest to the Hotline which may or may not be addressed in the media rights announcement the football schedule How countless games per season will be slotted on Thursday and Friday Will the conference play on Sunday or Monday Commissioner Teresa Gould has declared the Pac- entered the media rights process with a blank slate approach and networks are typically willing to pay for the flexibility to place games in unconventional broadcast slots Don t be surprised if the deal includes a twist or two Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - 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